Publication: A Spatial Model of Socioeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Nepal
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Date
2025
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Kathmandu University
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Background
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has re-emerged across the global South, particularly
in tropical and subtropical urban areas, driven by environmental changes alongside
local demographic and socioeconomic factors.
Objective
To investigate the spatial patterns and socioeconomic determinants of dengue fever
in Nepal from 2020 to 2023.
Method
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Gi* cluster analysis, and Local Moran’s
I statistics, the study examined the relationship between socio-economic variables
and dengue incidence across districts. Key factors analyzed included population
density, urbanization, and night-time light (NTL) intensity.
Result
Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis showed fluctuating
correlations between dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence and factors such as
population density, urbanization, and night-time light intensity. Moran’s I value for
population density were -0.083 in 2020, -0.082 in 2021, 0.526 in 2022, and -0.020
in 2023. Similarly, for urbanization, Moran’s I values shifted from -0.103 in 2020
to -0.090 in 2021, 0.458 in 2022, and 0.007 in 2023. Night-time light intensity also
demonstrated changing correlations, with Moran’s I values of -0.091 in 2020, -0.102
in 2021, 0.415 in 2022, and -0.068 in 2023. A notable shift from negative to positive
correlations occurred between 2020 and 2022. In 2022, high-incidence dengue
hemorrhagic fever clusters emerged in densely populated areas, while distinct spatial
patterns were observed in 2020 and 2021.
Conclusion
Dengue hemorrhagic fever risk spatial models are useful tools for detecting high-risk
locations and driving proactive public health initiatives. The study emphasized the
importance of dynamic, targeted public health interventions based on spatial and
socio-economic factors to effectively manage evolving dengue outbreak patterns.
KEY WORDS
Dengue, Gi* statistics, Local indicators of spatial association, Socio-economic status,
Spatial analysis
Description
Mahato RK,1 Htike KM,1 Yadav A,2 Baral S,3 Yadav RK,3,4 Kafle A,5 Sharma V6
1Faculty of Public Health
Khon Kaen University
Khon Kaen, Thailand
2Ministry of Health and Population
Kathmandu, Nepal
3School of Health and Allied Sciences, Pokhara
University, Pokhara, Nepal
4LA GRANDEE International College
Department of Public Health
Pokhara University, Nepal
5Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine
Khon Kaen University, Thailand
6Kathmandu University School of Medical sciences
Dhulikhel, Nepal
Keywords
Dengue, Gi* statistics, Local indicators of spatial association, Socio-economic status, Spatial analysis